Prediction of China's machinery industry in the se

Prediction of China's machinery industry in the second half of 2009

it is expected that infrastructure construction will continue to maintain rapid growth in the second half of 2009. In addition to real estate and infrastructure investment, investment in other downstream industries of construction machinery will also grow rapidly. Now, in the first four months of the year, the mining industry completed a fixed asset investment of 81.955 billion yuan, an increase of 38.95% year-on-year. We expect the annual growth rate of fixed asset investment to be more than 30%

the growth rate of fixed asset investment accelerates. Different materials require different fixtures to meet the needs of construction machinery. Real estate investment brings demand for mechanical products such as concrete machinery, tower cranes, truck cranes and excavators; Infrastructure investment brings demand for cranes, concrete machinery, excavators, loaders, bulldozers, rotary drilling rigs and other products; Investment in the mining industry brings demand for loaders, excavators, bulldozers and other products. The rapid growth of fixed asset investment in these downstream industries will provide guarantee for the demand for construction machinery in the second half of the year

our judgment on the time point of sales of major construction machinery this year is roughly as follows: the first quarter is the peak of the year, the second quarter is slightly lower than the level of the first quarter, the third quarter is the traditional off-season (lower than the level of the second quarter), and the fourth quarter is expected to return to the traditional relative peak season (higher than the third quarter but lower than the second quarter); In terms of year-on-year growth rate, the first quarter is expected to be the low point of the whole year, the decline in the second quarter is reduced, the third quarter is expected to be flat or achieve a small positive growth, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter is significantly accelerated

we re judged the annual exports of major construction machinery products, and increased the decline of exports, which affected the judgment of the annual total sales. We predict that the total annual sales volume of forklifts will reach about 120000 units, down 28.62%; The sales volume of loaders will reach about 130000 units, down 21.37%; The sales volume of bulldozers will reach about 7800 18 Software and user interface: Chinese and English test use software, Decreased by 10.02%; The sales volume of truck cranes will reach 20500 units, down 4.29%; The excavator sales volume is expected to be ready for trial run at the end of March 2015, reaching 75000 units, down 2.82%

the performance of specific construction machinery varieties varies greatly. Among them, forklifts and loaders are the varieties we are not optimistic about at present. First of all, after the rapid development in recent years, the annual sales base of forklifts and loaders has been very large, which exceeded 165000 last year, and there is little chance of rapid growth in the future; Secondly, the market competition is fierce. The main construction machinery enterprises regard forklift as an important choice to expand their product structure, and the current loader capacity is seriously oversupplied; Finally, the unit price of forklifts and loaders is very low, and their profitability is relatively weak

excavator is a kind of construction machinery that we continue to be optimistic about. At present, the import volume of excavators accounts for a large proportion of the domestic apparent consumption, and the market prospect of national excavators is broad

bulldozers and truck cranes are two varieties with relatively high market concentration. The market share of enterprises with the first market share is more than 50%, of which bulldozers are slightly higher than truck cranes. The sales volume of bulldozers is relatively stable, and the rapid growth in recent years is mainly due to the substantial increase in exports. Although the export of bulldozers decreased significantly, domestic sales increased positively driven by investment, and the annual sales volume decreased slightly. With the gradual recovery of the international market, there is still much room for the export of bulldozers to grow in the future. Domestic infrastructure construction is in full swing, and the demand for truck cranes is booming. In the first five months, the year-on-year growth rate of sales was 9 Effective experimental width: 1200mm (can be customized according to user requirements), truck crane is the only construction machinery product that is almost the same