Prediction of the annual trend of pulp and waste p

2017 annual trend forecast of pulp and waste paper market

release date: Source: China domestic mining industry China Paper Media Editor: Yu Jia Views: 4421 copyright and disclaimer

core tips: in 2016, foreign pulp enterprises were optimistic about the market demand in Southeast Asia, and continued to put in new capacity, involving a capacity of about 4.7 million tons, Among them, the capacity that has been put into operation is 2.9 million tons (the new capacity of APP Indonesia has not been put on the market yet, so the capacity of APP Indonesia pulp plant is not included temporarily). 20. It shall be fastened in time; If the electronic universal testing machine is not used for a long time after the experiment, there will be fluctuations in the pulp market in 17 years, which is mainly affected by supply and demand factors

[China Packaging News] [pulp]

in 2016, foreign pulp enterprises were optimistic about the market demand in Southeast Asia and continued to put in new production capacity, involving about 4.7 million tons of production capacity, of which 2.9 million tons have been put into production (APP Indonesia's new production capacity has not been put on the market, so app Indonesia's pulp mill capacity is not included temporarily). There were fluctuations in the pulp market in 2017, which were mainly affected by supply and demand factors

the market rose first and then stabilized in the first quarter, mainly due to the factory maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the supply of broad-leaved pulp continued to be in short supply before the festival, which coincided with the market inquiry of large manufacturers, so the pulp price rose steadily. After the Spring Festival, the factory resumed operation, the demand for raw materials picked up, and the supply of merchants was basically cleared. The problem of tight supply in the pulp market may be alleviated slightly, and the trading speed of the pulp market was stable

in the second quarter, affected by the off-season of the industry, the operators were cautious in trading, and the shortage of factories in the early stage may be alleviated, so the price of broad-leaved pulp may fall back due to the high inventory. However, whether the capacity of APP Indonesia pulp plant is put into operation is still a potential risk. If the price of broad-leaved pulp decreases, coniferous pulp may be dragged down by it

in the third and fourth quarters, affected by the launch of new production capacity or planned launch, the mentality of the industry is slightly pessimistic, and the pulp price may be weak, but it does not rule out the possibility of delaying the production of pulp mills to maintain the pulp price

the main reasons for supporting the above views are as follows. Let me give you a detailed introduction to the speed of the pull down testing machine. There are two profound aspects:

first, in 2017, the first 1.4 million tons of broad-leaved pulp capacity of APP Indonesia pulp plant was put into production, or the export time and volume were determined according to their own conditions. While foreign parrot pulp plant and a large domestic enterprise have new capacity plans, with a total design capacity of about 4.35 million tons, However, as parrot and a large domestic enterprise were put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2017, as well as new paper machines in Senbo Guangdong Xinhui and cultural paper machines in Asia Pacific Resources Indonesia, it is expected that the supply pressure of broad-leaved pulp may increase limited

second, Sodra pulp plant in Sweden plans to expand the original production capacity of 275000 tons to 700000 tons, and it is reported that 350000 tons of coniferous pulp production capacity is supplied to the Chinese market. After the production of klabin coniferous pulp production capacity in 2016, there are also exports to China. It is expected that there is pressure on the supply of coniferous pulp. However, it is worth noting that the above is only speculation under the normal volume of supply and demand. There are two pulp lines in app Indonesia pulp plant, and the production time of the second 1.4 million ton pulp line is uncertain; At the same time, it also depends on the supply and demand release of large-scale enterprises in the industry

[waste paper]

after many years of silence, the financial attributes of the domestic waste paper market broke out in 2016. In order to meet the demand for value preservation caused by the depreciation of the RMB and follow the rise of mainstream commodities, the domestic waste paper market opened an overbought mode in the second half of 2016, and the market price quickly exceeded the high level in 2008. Among them, the import waste paper restriction policy and the rise of land freight unit price are the direct factors that trigger the rise. In addition, the financial attribute of domestic waste paper is still there, which has been verified by the actual situation in 2016. Interwoven with the commodity attribute of domestic waste paper, it is expected that the domestic waste paper market will still fluctuate violently in 2017

from the perspective of market mentality, after restarting the financial attribute of domestic waste paper, the market urgently needs to continue to fluctuate sharply to meet the curiosity driven exploration of market supply and demand sides on the evolution of the market

it is expected that the market price of national waste yellow paperboard will still show a trend of first falling and then rising in 2017, and the average market price will fluctuate around 1500 yuan/ton. This conclusion is mainly drawn from the following aspects:

the Spring Festival holiday will begin at the end of January 2017. During the Spring Festival, most domestic paper mills have shutdown and overhaul plans, and the demand for raw materials will be flat at that time. In addition, in the early spring festival, the supply will increase, and the market is in a situation of oversupply

after the Spring Festival, the paper mills will be started one after another, and the packaging stations will be started one after another. After a short logistics recovery period, the market supply will peak again. At that time, the market price may be stimulated again, and this downward situation may continue until May

in June, the market supply and demand were weak, and the market remained basically stable

in July, as the weather turns hot and the plum rain season in the South comes, waste paper enters the off-season of recycling, and the recycling volume of the packaging station and the daily arrival volume of the paper mill show signs of reduction. Under this influence, the market price may rebound

since the second half of the year, the activity of the downstream finished paper market has increased, the demand of paper mills has improved, and the price has increased